Two Russian Civilian Airlines Lost on Radar

[Supah]

A hostage situation was not voice radioed but apparently by transponder, which can easily be explained by a variety of circumstances (possibly trying to switch to the emergency frequency).

An "exploding" airliner can easily be explained. The main source of that information is witnesses who are notoriously unreliable. The "explosion" could have easily been teh plane breaking up due to overstress (especially if diluted fuel, killed the engines and power, and the pilot was trying to over-correct, or if there was bad weather, as has been reported).

Lets say the fuel came from a tanker of which the inside of the tank had started to corrode. The corroded metal flakes off, flakes get in to fuel. Fuel is pumped in to airplanes tanks, fuel with flakes get into fuel lines clogging it up. Pressure builds in the fuelline, after a while the line breaks spilling fuel all over a hot running engine ..... There are lots of options. If one of its engines caught fire that would qualify as a pretty dangerous situation Not saying this explains it but is a likely scenario. Guess we will have to wait for them to find blackboxes if those were carried.

[Akira]

Doubt that overstress theory.

Why? I can name you half a different over-stress accidents in the last 20-30 years, and these were on newish planes, not ones from the Cold War.

And given the possible emergency situation, with loss of power, possible foul weather, and extreme pilot stress, it is indeed a possibility, especially considering major sections of the plane were found in different locations, indicating SOMETHING failed first.

EDIT: In fact found this. Same airplane type (not saying this is the cause though):
Date of Accident: 06 June 1994
Airline: China Northwest Airlines
Aircraft: Tupolev TU-154B
Location: Xi'an, China
Registration: B-2694
Previous Registrations: ---
Flight Number: 2303
Fatalities: 160:160
MSN: ---
Line Number: ---
Engine Manufacturer: ---
Engine Model: ---
Year of Delivery: ---
Accident Description: The aircraft broke up in-flight after a malfunction in the autopilot overstressed the airframe. Mechanical error.

[bn880]

Basically, we have to give this time to find the truth. A lot of speculation, but really we have no contrete sources of information to make educated guesses.

I don't think 2 planes had bad fuel and both pilots overstressed airframes, that's all.

[Akira]

Basically, we have to give this time to find the truth. A lot of speculation, but really we have no contrete sources of information to make educated guesses.

I don't think 2 planes had bad fuel and both pilots overstressed airframes, that's all.

Indeed. Just throwing possibilities out there (as I am taking an Aviation Safety course now).

I don't believe the possibility of BOTH pilots overstressing, though it is possible in one (where two main pieces of the plane were found).

[Akira]

Flight Data Recorders have been recovered and are being analyzed. I am not sure if they contained CVR's as well.

EDIT:

Quote[/b] ]The flight data recorders -- three from the larger Tu-154 and two from the Tu-134 -- may make clear what happened.

The cockpit voice recorder, particularly, would tell investigators if anything happened inside the cockpit.

Investigators said all five recorders were in good shape on the outside, but they could not vouch for the integrity of the recordings within until they opened them in Moscow.

Apparently the dumbass press is lumping the CVRs with the FDRs.

[theavonlady]

Reports coming in now that the planes may have collided.

[Akira]

Reports coming in now that the planes may have collided.

How could they have collided? I thought they were a hundred miles away from each other???

[Mister Frag]

It isn't easy for flaked-off metal chips to cause such failure.

First of all, you'd need a lot of flaked-off metal to do this. Second, there are filters, both mesh filters and magnetic ones, to deal with different types of fuel contamination (though I'm not sure how the Tupolevs are equipped). There are also filters to deal with water contamination (condensation).

Two separate planes crashing within minutes of each other (almost at the top of the hour) is just too weird. To me that is a probable sign of a coordinated attempt to take control of the flights.

[edc]

It really sounds like there are way too many coincidences to not be some sort of terrorist act. Though, it does seem different than most of the other Chechen terrorist attacks(ie, most Chechen terrorist attacks have been in subways, theaters, etc, around Moscow or other major cities). Have they ever tried to hijack or bomb a plane before? The hijacking transponder code is intriguing. I'm not sure why they would hijack an airliner and just crash it(ie, not crash it into something). Though I guess people like that wouldn't be the most logical or rational people.
The fuel thing sounds like kind of a stretch. I could maybe see and engine exploding or catching on fire, but I doubt they whole aircraft would disentegrate, not once, but twice.

[Balschoiw]

Quote[/b] ]Have they ever tried to hijack or bomb a plane before?

Yes. The one I remember is this one in 2001
Bloody end to Chechen hijack

Chechen terrorists also planned to capture a russian nuke sub. Not that unlikely if you check in wich condition the fleet and the security around is.
Makes me shiver...
Anyway, there are a lot of possibilities for the plane accident right now.

Edit: I revised my opinion after reading some articles and reading more detail. I´m pretty sure it was a terrorist attack.
Sunday elections..timed...emergency signals....voice comms
Looks very much like terrorists.